11/21/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sometimes, excessive cleverness is simply unnecessary.
Though it seems a requirement of the weekly NFL preview writer to weave a thread of humor, wit or even sarcasm into each and every pre-game tapestry, every now and then it's just piling on.
And such is the case this weekend at LP Field in Nashville.
When the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans - oh, did we mention they were unbeaten? - host the AFC East-leading New York Jets (they still have that Favre fella calling signals, don't they?) on Sunday at 1pm, any attempt to wordily buoy the event on this end would be, well...gratuitous.
So instead, we'll just leave it to the professionals.
"The undefeated Titans are big, tough and opportunistic. Correction: Make that big, tough, opportunistic and confident. Very confident," said veteran Jets beat writer Rich Cimini, in Tuesday's editions of the New York Daily News.
"That's what will be waiting for the Jets Sunday in Nashville, where the AFC's two hottest teams will meet in what could be - dare we say it? - a January preview.
"For the second time in 11 months, the Jets will face the NFL's only undefeated team. This time, they're not a mosquito staring at an oncoming windshield."
Already winners in five of six games, Gang Green officially raised itself above splattered bug status one week ago by traveling to Gillette Stadium and hanging on for a 34-31 overtime decision over the host New England Patriots - a win that provided both division supremacy and mental exorcism.
At least temporarily, anyway.
This week, in the Titans, the Jets face something of a mirror image - a powerful, multi-pronged running game, a veteran gunslinger-turned-game manager at quarterback and a mammoth nose tackle leading a so-far dominant, if not-yet appreciated defense.
Tennessee reached double-digit wins in its own dramatic style last week, rallying from an 11-point halftime deficit at Jacksonville to defeat the Jaguars, 24-14.
Kerry Collins, who's guided the team since Vince Young's physical and emotional meltdown in Week 1, threw all three of his touchdown passes in the second half and finished off an efficient 13-for-23, 230-yard day with a decisive 38-yard strike to Justin Gage with 3:57 remaining.
Still, at least one Titan is preaching restraint in the midst of the hot start.
"We've got 10 wins," said right guard Jake Scott, who played with Indianapolis when the Colts began the 2005 season with 13 straight wins and wound up losing their initial playoff game.
"That's a lot. To go undefeated, we'd have to win nine more. We're just a little over halfway. You're not even in that ballpark yet."
Tennessee is the 11th team since 1970 to win its first 10 games and the third team to do so in the past four seasons. Seven of the first 10 reached the Super Bowl, with five winning.
"It definitely gives you that realization no one's going to lay down for you in this league," Scott said. "You can show up at the Super Bowl 18-0. No one's going to lay down and let you win the game."
A little recent history...last year's Patriots raced through the regular season and playoffs at 18-0, only to lose the Super Bowl to the Jets' roommates at the Meadowlands - the New York Giants.
"You have to earn it. That's something you kind of have to watch out for at the end of the season when you're playing Week 14, 15, 16 and 17," Scott said. "You've got to still make sure you're evaluating your own performance honestly and make sure you're still getting better."
SERIES HISTORY
The Titans own a 21-15-1 lead in the all-time regular season series with the Jets, including a 10-6 home victory when the teams met in Week 16 of last season. Prior to that win, Tennessee had lost all three head-to-head matchups with the Jets since relocating from Houston prior to the 1997 season, including a 23-16 home loss in the previous meeting, in Week 1 of the 2006 campaign.
The Jets lost their only all-time postseason matchup against the Titans/Oilers, losing 17-10 in a 1991 AFC First-Round Playoff from the Astrodome.
Titans head coach Jeff Fisher is 4-3 in his career against the Jets, with his 24-10 win in the final week of the 1994 season marking his first victory as an NFL head coach. The Jets' Eric Mangini is 1-1 against both Fisher and the Titans as a head coach.
WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL
Evidence of his game-manageability, Favre has completed 40-of-52 passes for 425 yards, three touchdowns and a 119.5 passer rating in his past two starts, resulting in defeats of the Bills and Patriots. Including the postseason, his teams are 96-8 in games where he posts a rating of 100.0 or better. He is third in the conference with 18 touchdown passes and second with an overall passer rating of 93.0. On the ground, running back Thomas Jones leads the AFC with 854 rush yards and aims for a third consecutive 100-yard game. Jones has nine TDs in his past six games - 8 rushing, 1 receiving - and looks for a fifth straight game with at least one. His nine rush TDs overall are tied for third in the AFC and he's averaging 128.3 yards per game when carrying the ball at least 20 times in a game. Through the air, veteran Laveranues Coles caught eight balls for 153 yards in his lone career meeting against the Titans in 2006. Fellow wideout Jerricho Cotchery has faced Tennessee twice and has averaged 108.5 receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, rookie tight end Dustin Keller is emerging as Favre's crunch-time target. He's caught 14 passes for 194 yards and a TD in his last two games, including 12 passes for first-down yardage.
The Titans will present varied packages to Favre & Co., including man-to-man and zone defenses, along with mixtures of each. Tennessee's 15 interceptions on the season place it in a second-place tie in the league with Baltimore, one behind Green Bay at 16. Nose tackle Albert Haynesworth has a team-best seven sacks and will face a Jets offensive line that's allowed just four sacks in the last four games. End Dave Ball also seeks a fourth consecutive game with at least once sack. Overall, the Titans are 16-2 in games since 2006 where they record two or more interceptions, and are led by the trio of Cortland Finnegan, Michael Griffin and Chris Hope with a conference-best four INTs apiece. Cornerback Chris Carr recorded his first interception last week since October 2006.
WHEN THE TITANS HAVE THE BALL
Collins, a collegiate standout at Penn State who led Carolina to an NFC Championship Game and the Giants to a Super Bowl, has settled in nicely as the "you needn't win the game, but don't lose it" signal-caller and is 10-3 with Tennessee as a starter. He's completed 43-of-64 passes in his last two games, including five touchdowns, 519 yards and a 111.4 passer rating. Of course, he's leaned heavily on a rushing attack that's helped the team to a 17-3 mark since 2007 in games with 30 or more ground attempts. Rookie Chris Johnson is second in the AFC to New York's Jones with 787 rushing yards, while USC alum LenDale White has scored six times in his last five games. They'll both run behind center Kevin Mawae, who spent eight seasons with the Jets from 1998-2005. Through the air, Gage posted career highs in both yardage (147) and touchdowns (2) last week in Jacksonville, while tight end Bo Scaife needs three receptions to pass his 2007 career high of 46.
Long the Achilles heel of the team, the defense has more than held up its end in 2008, especially with the contributions of offseason newcomers Kris Jenkins and Calvin Pace. Jenkins, a nose tackle acquired in a trade with Carolina, has 2.5 sacks in his last two road games and has clogged up the middle while helping the team reach the league's top 10 in stopping the run. The Jets are third overall in the league with 34 sacks, led by a team-high seven from Shaun Ellis, though Collins has only been sacked five times this season. Second-year cornerback Darrelle Revis is tied for the AFC lead with four interceptions. Overall, the Jets are allowing 321 total yards per game and have a turnover margin of plus-1. However, they'll again be without leading 2007 tackler David Harris, who'll miss another week while recovering from recent surgery to mend an injured groin.
FANTASY FOCUS
For the Jets, Mssrs. Favre, Jones and Keller have elevated themselves to must- play roles, while Cotchery and Coles are possibilities and Leon Washington is a huge threat to either score prodigiously or be invisible. Defensively, Revis leads a sack-happy and ball-hawking bunch. For Tennessee, the runners have been solid if not individually prodigious, though having White down near the goal line often times results in short-yardage scores. Gage had a breakout week against the Jaguars and is the Titans' pass threat in a run-oriented offense. On the defense, Haynesworth is practical, if not fantasy gold, though a league-best turnover ratio (plus-10) provides plenty of reason to go with the Titans as a whole.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
If not for the presence of the Colts, Patriots, Steelers and Chargers and their long-time dominance of the AFC, this could legitimately be considered a Championship Sunday preview. In lieu of that, though, it's at least a statement game for a pair of teams wanting to be considered part of the upper class. The Jets were both magnificent and maddening in their downing of the Patriots last week, while the Titans - for at least the opening two quarters - gave plenty of fodder to those who still don't believe in spite of the 10-0 record. Each side presents matchup difficulties for the other, which could very well place the game in the hands of the veteran quarterbacks and on the toes of the serviceable kickers. In a repeat of last Thursday night, look for a late Favre drive and a clutch Jay Feely kick to be difference-makers.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Jets 17, Titans 14
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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