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11/11/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - All three of NASCAR's national touring series championships will be decided this weekend in South Florida. While Jimmie Johnson is on the verge of capturing his record-tying third-straight Sprint Cup Series title, the best race will likely be the Craftsman Truck Series, featuring the close points battle between Johnny Benson and Ron Hornaday, Jr.
NASCAR
Sprint Cup Series
Ford 400 - Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, FL
After winning last Sunday's race in dominating fashion at Phoenix, Jimmie Johnson practically wrapped up this year's "Chase for the Sprint Cup" championship. Johnson led 217 of 313 laps and held off a hard-charging Kurt Busch in a green-white-checkered finish to record his seventh victory of the season.
Carl Edwards won at Atlanta and Texas and moved to within 106 points of Johnson, but after finishing fourth at Phoenix, Edwards fell 141 markers behind as the series heads to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the season-ending Ford 400.
If Johnson finishes 36th or better at Homestead, regardless of Edwards' performance, he will join Cale Yarborough as the only drivers to win three consecutive Cup championships. Yarborough captured his titles from 1976-78.
"I really think where we are in points is going to allow me to go to Homestead and take a little pressure off my brain this week," Johnson said. "To just go down and relax and get in the car and set it up, just do what we know how to do, go shoot for the pole on Friday with no pressure, and the same thing in race practice, just get the car driving good and comfortable and make sure it has speed in it."
Johnson has yet to win at Homestead, but has scored five top-10 finishes in seven races there, including a seventh-place finish in last year's race and a ninth-place run in the 2006 event.
In 2005, Johnson came to Homestead second in the Chase standings, 52 points behind Tony Stewart, but he crashed midway through the race and finished 40th. He ended the '05 season 127 points behind champion Stewart in fifth-place.
Edwards, meanwhile, has finished fourth, fifth, and eighth in his last three races at Homestead. Not likely probable, but it's possible that Edwards could pull off a miracle at the mile-and-a-half South Florida track.
"We're going to go to Homestead with everything we've got and be aggressive and try to win the race," Edwards said. "The mile-and-a-half tracks have been our best lately."
Homestead will mark the end of Tony Stewart's 10-year run with Joe Gibbs Racing as the two-time Cup champion leaves the No.20 Toyota to drive for his own team - Stewart Haas Racing - in 2009.
"I just wanted to make it, let alone make it 10 years here," Stewart said. "It makes me very proud of both my relationship with everyone at Joe Gibbs Racing and The Home Depot. They've been a great company to work for and represent. It's been a lot of fun. We've been through a lot of highs and a lot of lows, but at the end of the day, we've had a lot of fun and we've won a lot of races and won two championships. I think we've had a very successful 10 years."
Ryan Newman, the 2008 Daytona 500 winner, will make his final start in the No.12 Dodge as he departs Penske Racing at the end of the season to join Stewart's new team.
Casey Mears will start in the No.5 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports one last time before moving to Richard Childress Racing next season, while Reed Sorenson will drive the No.41 Dodge for Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates for the final time and then head over to Gillett Evernham Motorsports.
Paul Menard leaves the No.15 Dale Earnhardt Inc. Chevrolet after Homestead and takes sponsorship from his family-owned chain of hardware stores to Yates Racing.
Last week, Mark Martin drove the No.8 DEI Chevrolet for the final time as he takes over driving duties in the No.5 car for Hendrick in '09.
Homestead is also one last chance for several drivers to end their season with at least one victory. Most notably is Jeff Gordon, who has won a race in 14 consecutive years. However, Gordon has not scored a victory since October 2007 at Charlotte. He has yet to win a Cup race at Homestead, but did take the checkered flag for a Nationwide event there in 2000.
"We've never won here, and I would like to end the year on a positive note," Gordon said. "We've had some strong runs here in the past, and with the improvements we've made recently in our intermediate track program, a strong run this weekend could give this DuPont team a spark heading into the offseason."
Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick are also winless this year. Kenseth has won at least one race in the previous six seasons, while Harvick has recorded a victory in the last three years.
Nationwide Series
Ford 300 - Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, FL
Carl Edwards' late-season surge continued last Saturday with a victory at Phoenix. Edwards, the defending Nationwide Series champion, gained 35 more points on leader Clint Bowyer.
Bowyer saved his title hopes when he overcame a wreck midway through the race to finish fourth. He maintains a 56-point lead over Edwards heading into the Ford 300 at Homestead.
"I thought we were done when we got all bottled up there," Bowyer said. "(Brad Keselowski) ran into me and I drove through (David Ragan). It was a roller coaster, for sure, but I'm really proud of our guys. They didn't give up. I thought our championship run was done right there. The car was really tight after that, and we had to pull all the tape off the nose. To wreck and finish fourth, that's how championships are won."
Edwards was 207 points behind Bowyer seven races ago, but since then, has finished fifth or better, including three victories, to move within striking distance of his second-straight title.
However, if Bowyer finishes eighth or better at Homestead, regardless of Edwards' performance, he will clinch his first series championship.
Bowyer finished 39th in his first Nationwide race at Homestead in 2004, but has finished eighth, ninth and 11th in the last three races there.
Edwards has finished second and fourth in his last two Nationwide events in South Florida.
Meanwhile, Kyle Busch will have another chance to break Sam Ard's 1983 series record for most wins in a season. Busch tied Ard's record at Texas with his 10th victory of the year. He finished fifth last Saturday at Phoenix.
Craftsman Truck Series
Ford 200 - Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, FL
The Craftsman Truck Series will conclude its season with a thrilling points battle between Johnny Benson and Ron Hornaday, Jr. as only three points separate the two drivers heading into Homestead.
As bizarre as Phoenix ended up for Benson and Hornaday, Jr., the race for the championship has now become the closest it's been at the this point in the history of the series.
Hornaday started on the pole at Phoenix, but disaster struck for the defending series champion on the first lap. Kyle Busch moved to the outside of Hornaday on the backstretch, with Hornaday making contact with Busch, causing him to spin and hit the outside wall.
Hornaday suffered damage to his truck, but his crew, along with the help of other teams, worked expeditiously to repair it and had him back on the track 30 laps later.
Benson was also involved in the incident and had to make several pit stops for repairs.
While Benson was working his way through the field and attempting to pad his points lead on Hornaday, his luck turned for the worse on Lap 87 when he made contact with TJ Bell. Benson and Bell spun and hit the wall, with Benson suffering a broken rotor as a result.
Benson rejoined the race in the closing stages, but ended up finishing one position behind Hornaday in 26th. Hornaday gained three points on him.
"Johnny and I said we are going to go fishing, and whoever catches a fish first is going to win the championship, because we definitely don't want to win this thing on the track," Hornaday said.
The closest points battle going into the final race in a NASCAR national touring series occurred in 1979 when Darrell Waltrip led Richard Petty by two points in the Cup standings. Petty won the championship by 11 markers.
If Hornaday captures the title, he will become the series' only four-time and back-to-back champion, as well as NASCAR's oldest national series titleholder at 50 years, four months and 25 days. Ted Musgrave became NASCAR's eldest champion when he won the 2005 Craftsman Truck Series title at 49 years, 11 months and one day.
Meanwhile, Benson is aiming for his second NASCAR national series title as he has won the Nationwide championship in 1995.
"We're just trying to make it exciting," Benson said. "It's going to be exciting for the fans and for our teams. I'm excited but not nervous. It's been a lot of fun."
Greg Biffle is the only driver to win both a Nationwide and Craftsman Truck Series title.
Benson is the defending winner at Homestead. He passed Kyle Busch on the final lap of a green-white-checkered finish to record his ninth career victory.
Hornaday entered last year's season-finale 29 points behind leader Mike Skinner, but Skinner lost the title when he suffered a flat tire early in the race and then encountered another wheel problem during the mid-stages, resulting in a 35th-place finish. Hornaday came in seventh and ended the year 54 points ahead of Skinner.
Hornaday has finished 14th or better, including one victory, in eight truck races at Homestead. He won there in 2002.
Whatever the outcome, Friday night's Ford 200 at Homestead should be a dandy.
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For the last 18 years,
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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